The Upcoming Decade – Cup Half Full or Half Empty?

One man’s views….

Reality and Hope

In these early days of the new decade it is attractive to try to look forward into what may be coming or what may be awaiting us the coming years and this decade.

Focussing around energy and the current situation the question comes up: will there be enough?

Many of the pundits and experts are proclaiming that soon growth will be again upon us and that oil- and energy-demand will rise again and that all will be well. But is this realistic?

Starting with the biggest energy-user on the planet, the USA, it seems, reading more than just the controlled mainstream-media, that the USA is fast on its way to a thorough collapse and subsequent reduction of energy-usage, which may fall to 60 % of its highest point in the coming years.

Looking at the second biggest energy-user on the planet, which uses currently less than half of nr. 1 with about 4 times the amount of people, China, we learn that the economic and energy-usage growth of the last years was for more than 50 % due to the export to Western nations, especially USA, which is now shrinking rapidly. This means that the growth will reduce strongly and that the expected growth, as postulated by the experts, may not be as strong as envisioned by many. The consequence of this may be that the revival of the world-economy may take more time.

Looking at other high-energy-users, we see that Europe is still contracting and is awaiting further ripple-on-effects of the global banking fraud and notwithstanding positive expectations, energy-demand growth seems far away here as well. Also the Middle East is seeing the ‘limits to growth’, which translates in many projects being delayed, whilst others may turn out ‘too big – too late’.

So without making a grand tour around the globe, my reading is that the coming year we might very well continue to see a glut in oil, gas and LNG all together, as energy-demand globally is on retreat.

If we then look beyond this year and more into the mid- and longer term within this decade, I see no reason to believe that substantial growth in either energy-demand or the global economy will take place within the coming 2 – 3 years, no matter what the oil-price will tell.

This may not be as dramatic as it sounds, and may have its good sides, as much exploration is being ‘capped’ and the apparent multiple new finds are not enough to balance out the ever ongoing depletion. This could indicate relative price-stability, would it not be for the rampant speculation and market- (and media-) manipulation.

Looking at other signals we may also see conflict or war in preparation, as the activity in Yemen and the pathetic shoe-bomber 2 –attempt, who conveniently comes from Nigeria (where the next theatre is waiting in the Gulf of Guinea) and conveniently is saying he was trained by some grouping in Yemen, shows. War and terror are ever more being used as state-media to make sure the dollar keeps rolling and that energy-lanes can be controlled. What the effects of these conflicts and possible wars will be on the world is very hard to foresee, as also the schemes behind these ‘arisings’ are becoming more known and hopefully one day will back-fire.

On another note, we can see that the effects of the changing and destabilising of the climate is becoming known and may start to be seen on a grander scale the coming years, which may have further deteriorating effects on quite a few economies.

And then there is the effects that may occur at the end of 2012, which are much hyped and misused, but is nothing else than a special, and probably very potent, astronomical configuration. Whether this will be the end of the world is doubtful, although it may be used by some to try to create world-wide havoc in their attempts to create a new world order. What it may mean is that things may start to change in a different way than currently envisaged, and whether this will be good for the currently artificial life-style with its large-scale destruction and devastation, is questionable.

Looking beyond that time, other than in an extrapolatory fashion, which has already proven useless the last years, is very hard due to the many unknown factors.

Can we then be optimistic and happily look forward to this coming decade? Well, that depends on your intentions in life, your values and what you deem important. It is not so much what happens to you, but how you deal with it (in yourself). And whilst the economic situation may deteriorate for many, there will also be a rising spirit and a growing consciousness about the reality of the human and how it is actually meant to be.

All the best for this coming year,

Alexander

Issue #1 has been published on Thursday, January 07, 2010.