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Scott Beveridge.
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April 7, 2010 at 8:04 am #3421
rovnumpty
ParticipantFrom some comments on another thread…
What’s everyone’s thoughts on the future of the industry?
I suspect moves by SS7, Acergy and saipem to bring cheap labour into the market are merely the tip of the iceberg.
I reckon with 3-5 years, crewing norms will be an experienced supervisor, with two relatively unskilled philipinos or poles.
Within 10 years, even the supervisor postions will be taken by cheap labour, probably from africa by that time.
Why?
Because the companies can. And accountants run the companies. So cheapest option will always win.
I’m looking at retraining as a McDonald’s burger flipper.
April 7, 2010 at 8:40 am #27301Archibald Carruthers
ParticipantGood question Numpty,
Well firstly I think that there is a vast difference between sitting on a rig doing drill support and doing construction at 1500 plus metres.
Several reports, I have read recently, suggest that the oil price is about to leap – projected to be between 120 and 200 dollars a barrel before 2015 depending on which reports you read. Generally they are talking about 120 plus this year. Several reasons but over stating reserves being the main reason. Consumption by China and India likely to treble over a short period etc.
This would spur deepwater research which will increase the need for ROV again.
I am not going to knock the guys getting qualified in various countries, they are trying to improve their quality of life – but the standards of modern education and skills is crap by comparison to the earlier stuff. What people now call degrees are more like what we did at A level.
To back that statement up, before I get leapt over by everyone who has just finished a degree, when I was at school (a Grammar school) we were allowed to do 6 O levels (GCE/GCSE) and 3 A levels. My sister 8 years later at the same school was able to sit 12 O and 6 A levels. Now it is even more.
As far as I am aware, there are still 12 months in a year and 7 days in a week. School holidays are longer than when I was there so how have they suddenly managed to produce people who can sit so many more exams – to the same level in a shorter time?There is only one answer – the standards have been compromised.
(also I have recently just finished a Master degree).There is a vast dumbing down going on all over the world – governments do not want people who can think and question things – they want sheep who will work, pay taxes and do as they are told an not question anything. Just look at the crap they allow to be pumped out on TV, how the meidia is now controlled by governments or by a rich mogul – so do we get independent uncensored views – do we bollocks we get exactly what they want to tell us.
This idea progrsses through big business – who lets face it own most governments via banks etc.
Anyway, bottom line is, are you going to let a poorly educated and trained guy loose on an XLX at 3000 m? It is a bit different to flying a Tiger at 30 metres on drill support.
So personally I do not think that we going to see the end of ROV. In the other thread it has been cited by several people that once we see a few more vehicles lost and damage done that costs the company we will see a difference.
One consideration will be insurance, because once Sclub7, and similar, start to employ lots of poorly trained, less qualified guys and their insurers realise then their premiums will rise drastically. The conditions will be much more stringent and hopefully cost the bastards an arm and several legs.
It was not that long ago that a rather large concern (you mentioned earlier) almost when bust over Brazilian contracts where they miscalculated costings and managed to turn a very large contract (billions) into a huge loss (millions).
I feel it is only a matter of time before there is a major adjustment.
April 7, 2010 at 9:34 am #27302rovnumpty
ParticipantSome interesting points profannysaurus.
To clarify some of my initial thoughts.
I think the timescales I suggested are for the large companies (SS7, Acergy, Oceaneering, Saipem, Technip) as they don’t consider ROV as part of the ‘core’ businesses. ROV is merely a division which costs money all the time (any money coming in from ‘ROV services’ usually goes through as a project profit, not an equipment profit). As such, the senior management see the rov divisions in these companies as an area ‘ripe’ for cost cutting measures. Remember, most large companies have accountants and professional managers in their senior management that know nothing about how any work that is carried out in their companies, but they can read a balance sheet.
They would also see insurance on a lost ROV is an irrelevance when compared to the profits made from finishing a EPIC contract with cheap labour. They’d take the chance, and even a few losses, before deciding to do anything. ‘Anything’ would probably be to invest in more training for their cheap hires (still cheaper than employing one of us, and probably refundable through tax incentives).
Some smaller companies will go the ‘technically superior’ route as a USP which would mean employing more of us brits/ex-pats/ etc. But to remain competitive, they’d have to keep the rates down.
The Norwegians and Ozzies have nothing to worry about, as their uni0ns will ensure cheap foreign labour stay outside their continental shelves. Despite the best efforts of Neil etc at OILC and other uni0ns, Uni0ns in the UK have no real teeth to enforce this kind of decision. The prospect of a conservative government isn’t about to change that any time soon.
Americans have little to worry about either, as it looks like their government will enforce legislation to ensure little foreign labour will be able to work in the gulf of Mexico. Fat chance of that happening in the UK either.
In some ways, we’ve been our own worst enemies. We’ve managed to make ROVs seem more reliable. That suggests to the top brass (aided, no doubt, by the vast reams of data coming from the ROV manufacturers that their new systems are much more reliable) that the expensive ‘techs’ can now be replaced with cheaper ‘techs’. Only us at the coal face know different.
The biggest shame of it is that this will probably be the beginning of the end for the subsea construction industry in the UK. Why bother having your main office in the UK when all your equipment and personnel are overseas?
Had some of the ROV schools, smaller operators and government trade bodies been a bit more forward thinking a couple of years ago and got together with some of the oil companies to define a proper competency scheme, this might have been avoided. As such, the companies can still send whoever they want out at whatever level they want with no-one to say ‘Oi! No!’
Well, after that lot, maybe I’ll look at writing a book as well as flipping buggers.
April 7, 2010 at 10:23 am #27303Archibald Carruthers
ParticipantNumpty, maybe you are right mate.
April 7, 2010 at 4:10 pm #27304ROVRatt
ParticipantAh yes, remember I predicted this some years ago when the UK ROV guys insisted that they had to be paid more than those from other regions of the world? If you do a search you will see that I stated the UK ROV industry would go the same way as the British Seaman industry to cheaper labour.
What was I calling for? An insistence from the Brits that all ROV guys working for the same company get paid the same no matter where they work or come from. I said that oil costs the same world wide? What answers did I get? An insistence that Brits get paid more due to having a higher cost of living.
April 7, 2010 at 7:09 pm #27305James McLauchlan
ParticipantI think no matter what was said before, or by whom, many countries are closing their doors to foreigners working offshore when unemployment is high and their own citizens can do the job.
I am now of the opinion that the OILC/RMT cannot have any influence offshore as it now appears that they do not have the stomach or will to do so. The last Offshore Grades Conference (OGC) was apparently a shambles. By that I can now conclude that there will be no ROV agreement on North Sea rates via that route for sure.
Therefore, the UK door is still very wide open and will remain a haven for cheap labour to be employed in the UK sector until the UK government legislates to shut the door and gives it’s own citizens a decent shot at working in their own oil & gas sector. You can see more of that approach by many countries now.. but still not the UK!
I’m amazed that, with unemployment so high, the UK authorities think that it’s OK for foreigners to fly in, head offshore and displace UK citizens from valuable jobs which results in lower tax and VAT revenue for the country. Beats me.
April 7, 2010 at 7:26 pm #27306me
ParticipantGuys, where i come from the guy next to you will be paid the same as you if not, big problem for the company, that way the jobs stay in your own country, no need to import cheap labour (I dont live there anymore 🙂 )
April 8, 2010 at 6:15 am #27307KeyserSoze
ParticipantJames, my sentiments exactly regarding the RMT.
I have paid my dues for a good few years now and it seems like it’s a case of one step forward and 2 steps back.
Incidentally I cannot gain access to NOKERNOK and have had no reply from recent enquiries. Hmmm?
I think it’s about time I kept my money to myself rather than "invest" in a union which should be renamed the RRT.
Hat’s off though to Neil and yersel for giving it a good push. :tup:
April 8, 2010 at 7:55 am #27308James McLauchlan
ParticipantJames, my sentiments exactly regarding the RMT.
I have paid my dues for a good few years now and it seems like it’s a case of one step forward and 2 steps back.
Incidentally I cannot gain access to NOKERNOK and have had no reply from recent enquiries. Hmmm?
I think it’s about time I kept my money to myself rather than "invest" in a union which should be renamed the RRT.
Hat’s off though to Neil and yersel for giving it a good push. :tup:
As far as rates and condition go in the UK the future of our ROV industry does not lie with the OILC/RMT
Why?
One key to us making any progress was NokerNok forum. NokerNok is now officially dead. The branch don’t want to talk to it’s members.
There was another guy that works offshore topside in construction that was key to the NokerNok site. He lost the plot with the branch as well as me. Recently there were a quick flurry of short PM’s between us (and Neil) and the site was closed without notice. The appointed OILC branch organisers hated the idea of the members actually being kept informed. How counter-productive is that??
The only appointed guy with the OILC that had any interest, and all the right ideas, was the OILC branch secretary Neil Rothnie, who posted on here as late as Feb of this year. Hats off to him for sure. Unfortunately it appears that the rest of the branch team (if you can call them that) were not overly keen on his involvement and pro-activeness on the subsea side. I saw inside the branch door more than an ordinary member might. I visited the branch, attended a meeting there and was party to a pile of comms whizzing around. My god!….do they argue!! Infighting was rife!!
It’s like a bloody kindergarten at times.The potential was huge, the forum set-up was there (set up and run by members – i was not a branch initiative), ROV members were joining, the branch was up to 3,500 offshore members, ROV membership was up in the hundreds (about 140 in SS7 alone) members were being kept up to speed on events far better than they had ever been. For a short while it looked like progress was being made, but the RMT is more interested in trains, as we constantly keep hearing in the UK news. The OILC could be doing much more for our industry but clearly have no stomach to have their cosy secretive little world blown away. So I, and many others, are now of the opinion that they had their chance to do something and they most obviously blew it. Other unions have managed it around the world but not the RMT. It’ll never happen whilst it is being run the way it is.
FYI Neil has moved on to the general RMT organisation so he is no longer in he branch. I’m sure he’ll be trying to push for offshore action by the RMT (by that I do not mean industrial action) but I fear he may make himself ill through trying way before the RMT leadership in London become interested in the North Sea.
Now, I will go as far as to say that if you are in the RMT then the only benefit you will get is cheap legal aid at a £16/month retainer.
I guess the above is a little off topic but in the context of…
What is the future for our industry... as far as the UK North Sea goes It is not the OILC/RMT.April 8, 2010 at 9:28 am #27309Savante
Participant3500 members * 16 * 12 * 2 = 1.344 Million pounds……
April 8, 2010 at 12:15 pm #27310James McLauchlan
Participant3500 members * 16 * 12 * 2 = 1.344 Million pounds……
April 8, 2010 at 6:38 pm #27311Savante
ParticipantFuture of the market; consolidation at company level, diversification at personal level.
April 8, 2010 at 9:27 pm #27312mctintin
ParticipantYou can put me down as a soon to be disgusted ex-RMT member 😡
April 13, 2010 at 9:18 am #27313dandydon
Participant……I am now of the opinion that the OILC/RMT cannot have any influence offshore as it now appears that they do not have the stomach or will to do so. The last Offshore Grades Conference (OGC) was apparently a shambles. By that I can now conclude that there will be no ROV agreement on North Sea rates via that route for sure.
ITS TAKEN A WHILE KEN BUT THE MAIR BLOKES A SPEAK TIL ARE THINKING EXACTLY THE SAME AS THE ABOVE.
RMT/OILC + ROV = 0 FOR ROV ….SIMPLE
MAKE HAY WHILE THE SUN SHINES BOYS CUASE THE CLOODS ARE GETHERIN
April 14, 2010 at 3:56 am #27300Scott Beveridge
ParticipantA dam_n shame and SHAME on the RMT!!!! What to do ladies and germs??? Seems a no-brainer…. START OUR OWN GLOBALLY. Don’t mean to put it so glib, however, if a group of say, retired, semi-retired, pseudo-retired ROV guys / gals, got together …. who knows…???
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