Deepwater Market Report 2009 – 2013

[K2]

Snippet from DW’s latest:

"despite current oil price concerns, the deepwater oil and gas sector will spend an average of over $27bn annually between 2000 – 2013"

😉

[T-Boy]

Yep, it’s certainly not all gloom and doom Russ.

I watched a report on the Beeb worldwide yesterday about oil prices and the current O&G market…if the Russians were to ease back slightly on their supply, the PPB would most probably rise to $70 ish and that would spur on the investors again…

Time will tell…

[Crome]

Yep, it’s certainly not all gloom and doom Russ.

I watched a report on the Beeb worldwide yesterday about oil prices and the current O&G market…if the Russians were to ease back slightly on their supply, the PPB would most probably rise to $70 ish and that would spur on the investors again…

Time will tell…

Why the Russians and not Saudi Arabia?

Or even United States?

[T-Boy]

Because from what OPEC were alledgedly saying, these countries were close to their supply/ demand quota.

[Crome]

Because from what OPEC were alledgedly saying, these countries were close to their supply/ demand quota.

OPEC defends is interests, of course, and you said well "allegedly"…

Correct me if I am wrong, but Russia doesn’t play OPEC’s game, so it doesn’t have a quota established.

The problem is that when OPEC cuts the supplies, non OPEC producers can raise is production then oil doesn’t go up and OPEC producers loose money (or don’t make as much…).

Of course the main factor for oil prices is not the production, it is the trust in economy and the speculation on it.

It would be nice if anyone could get a production graph for the last 10 years, so we could compare it to oil price.

[Crome]

As you can see in these 2 graphs there is no negative correlation between oil price and production.

In the medium/long term production and price follow together.

This graph corresponds to the Oil production since 1960 to 2005.

This one to the spot Oil price from 87 to 2008.

By May 2007 you can see the market invested money running away to the Oil futures, forming a bubble that imploded in 2008.

That had nothing to do with production, just speculation.

Now Oil is around 48$ and in my opinion is ready to go even lower, after this stock rally that we have seen in the past week resumes to the bear market that is well installed.

On the short term, sure there are changes in the price of oil due to the production alterations from OPEC and other countries, but is not the production itself that does that, is the speculation on the news.

We can expect one two months (max) of economic optimism, but new lows are coming, in stocks and in oil.

Of course this is only my opinion.

[deepseacon]

BBC Sunday 15th March

Opec keeps oil output unchanged

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7944472.stm

Oil ministers from the 12 Opec countries meeting in the Austrian capital Vienna have decided to keep oil production at current levels.

Some ministers had pressed for a cut in production, but others were believed to favour enforcing previous cuts before any new measures were considered.

With demand for oil predicted to fall this year, Opec is keen to avoid another decline in the price of oil.

Prices have averaged $40 a barrel in 2009 compared with $100 last year.

According to Opec figures, the 12 member states have so far delivered only around 80% of the 4.2 million barrels per day in cuts that have been agreed since September last year.

OPEC MEMBERS
Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Venezuela

The ministers pledged to comply more strictly with the cuts.

Another meeting will be held on 28 May to assess whether further cuts in production will be necessary.

Algeria, Venezuela and Qatar, had said that oil output should be cut further. Oil prices have fallen from a record high of more than $147 a barrel in July and currently trade around $46 as the global downturn has hit demand for oil and oil-based products.

Russia, which vies with Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer, sent Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin to Vienna to observe proceedings and said in future it planned to send a permanent observer to Opec.

However, it said it was not inclined to join the organisation

[Author]

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